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Thread started 08/21/19 3:07pm

Ugot2shakesumt
hin

What would a collapse of the oil economy do?

We were concerned about "peak oil" and the impending crises that was supposedly just decades around the corner.

At least I was.
But now it seems the opposite is true, and a major glut will happen much sooner as the automotive sector transitions to electric from oil in the next 10 years.

51% of every barrel of oil in turned into gasoline, and of US oil consumption, 70% of our oil consumption is gasoline.

.

Some of the biggest losers..

..
Exxon/Mobile

BP

Auto Mechanics (After a boom where used gasoline cars are cheap and available)

Smog check stations.

....

but instability from a sharp drop in demand would hurt nations who's economies are dependent on oil revenues, which includes the following.

..

Russia

China

Venezuela (is going to be super fucked)

Lybia

iran

iraq

Canada

.....

Tesla alone has already impacted the price of oil, but I don't expect a meaningful transition from oil to electric sooner than 10 years. But as electric car prices go down, I expect more people to seriously consider their next car being a Tesla in the next 5 years.

..

...and I also don't expect the complete transition to EV vehicles in my lifetime..or ever. We still have use for horses in transportation, and I expect gasoline powered cars to fill a specific niche in the foreseeable future.

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Reply #1 posted 08/22/19 5:09pm

guitarslinger4
4

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TBH I think if we moved totally to electric vehicles right now, the power grid here in the US would take a shit. Our infrastructure here is in no way able to hold up to the entire country charging up cars right now, that's definitely something that needs to be worked out that I don't hear a lot of people talking about.

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Reply #2 posted 08/22/19 5:38pm

Ugot2shakesumt
hin

guitarslinger44 said:

TBH I think if we moved totally to electric vehicles right now, the power grid here in the US would take a shit. Our infrastructure here is in no way able to hold up to the entire country charging up cars right now, that's definitely something that needs to be worked out that I don't hear a lot of people talking about.



Yeah I think the timeline is 10 years. Infrastructure needs an upgrade, luckily people are putting more and more solar roofs.
.
Also Tesla owns its own battery factory and can’t keep up with demand for the cars they themselves have sold.
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China is moving on replacing gasoline cars with electric as public policy and that alone would impact oil demand and help their air quality.
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I have no doubt it’s going to happen within ten years where at least 25-30% of new cars sold were electric, there are too many factors and incentives. That’s a lot of oil that is suddenly not needed.
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Reply #3 posted 08/22/19 6:26pm

Ugot2shakesumt
hin

Recent news stories have been mentioning this curve indicator. I really dont want to believe bad news regarding the economy, but we have to at least consider it.


The market's most feared recession signal flashes again amid fears the Fed won't do enough to prevent an economic meltdown

https://markets.businessi...1028467861
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A key part of the yield curve inverted on Thursday for the third time this month.
The move into negative territory came after three regional Federal Reserve presidents spoke out against lowering interest rates further.
The commentary reignited economic concerns, because yield-curve inversions have preceded every recession since 1950.
.
The spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and its two-year counterpart veered into negative territory again on Thursday, inverting a key part of the yield curve for the third time this month.

The inversion came as hawkish comments from multiple regional Federal Reserve chiefs stoked fears that the central bank won't take the measures required to avoid an economic recession.

Kansas City Fed President Esther George was the first to speak out against lowering interest rates in an interview Thursday, followed by the Philadelphia Fed's chief, Patrick Harker. Eric Rosengren, the leader of the Boston Fed, has also spoken out against additional cuts.

Two of the Fed officials said they were not in favor of the "mid-cycle adjustment" cut in July. "My sense was we've added accommodation, and it wasn't required," George told CNBC, while Harker said he went along with the rate cut reluctantly.
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Reply #4 posted 08/24/19 1:35pm

guitarslinger4
4

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Another thing I don't think people take into account is the petrodollar. The fact that USD is used for oil is part of what props up the dollar's value across the world. So it's possible that if oil bottoms out and there's little reason for people to use the dollar over, say, the British pound or Chinese Yuan, it could be really bad news for the US.

I do wonder what sort of environmental considerations the increase in electricity consumption would have.
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Reply #5 posted 08/25/19 7:16am

alandail

guitarslinger44 said:

TBH I think if we moved totally to electric vehicles right now, the power grid here in the US would take a shit. Our infrastructure here is in no way able to hold up to the entire country charging up cars right now, that's definitely something that needs to be worked out that I don't hear a lot of people talking about.

solor power on roofs solves that issue.

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Reply #6 posted 08/25/19 7:32am

Ugot2shakesumt
hin

I think whatever happens in terms of jobs is going to happen slowly enough for an orderly transition to just evolve.
.
The nations that depend on oil revenues to run or offset deficits to run their economies..that’s where seeds of stray unmanageable economic uncertainties in the next 5 years may start to sprout.
[Edited 8/25/19 7:36am]
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Reply #7 posted 08/25/19 9:02am

guitarslinger4
4

avatar

alandail said:



guitarslinger44 said:


TBH I think if we moved totally to electric vehicles right now, the power grid here in the US would take a shit. Our infrastructure here is in no way able to hold up to the entire country charging up cars right now, that's definitely something that needs to be worked out that I don't hear a lot of people talking about.




solor power on roofs solves that issue.



It does if you can get every electric car owner to adopt that technology, but it seems very slow to catch on, at least here in the US.

NinjaEdit: Do you mean solar panels on the roofs of the cars themselves? That could be an interesting development.

[Edited 8/25/19 9:04am]
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Reply #8 posted 08/25/19 10:18am

nd33

Some places have announced bold plans, this might be the boldest, so far:
https://www.theguardian.c...bikes-2030

I think the petrol vehicle has seen many more years in its past than it has left in its future. The tipping point is prob gonna be in the 20’s.

As far as clean energy for charging electrics goes, NZ currently has almost 90% renewable energy, mainly from hydro. I wonder why other countries aren’t pushing hydro power?
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Reply #9 posted 08/25/19 10:24am

2freaky4church
1

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We need to end oil and soon. Coal should have been last week. Oil has killed millions.

All you others say Hell Yea!! woot!
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