Well, I guess we should start documenting the polls for the 2020 election.

Cick the link for the complete story and to support their advertisers.

lets first start with FiveThirtyEight which is a gold standard and see what they have to say. Which is predictable.



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https://fivethirtyeight.c...iously-no/

JUN. 14, 2019, AT 6:30 AM

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Poll of the week

A lot of people are talking about hypothetical 2020 general election polls, including the president of the United States.

A national Quinnipiac Unive... this week, for example, showed Joe Biden with a 53-40 lead against President Trump. But it wasn’t just Biden — all the Democratic contenders Quinnipiac included in matchups with Trump were significantly ahead of the president: Bernie Sanders 51-42, Kamala Harris 49-41, Elizabeth Warren 49-42, Cory Booker 47-42 and Pete Buttigieg 47-42. Meanwhile, in an interview with ABC New...hanopoulos, Trump dismissed any polls that showed him trailing the Democrats.internal polling and a Quinnipiac survey of Texas voters.

So, just how seriously should we take hypothetical general election polls more than a year out and before the Democratic nominee has been selected?

Not seriously.

In the runup to the 2016 presidential election, this same question came up, and FiveThirtyEight analyzed general election...44 to 2012 that tested the eventual nominees and were conducted in the last two months of the year before the election (so for 2012, that would be November and December of 2011). On average, these polls missed the final result by 11 percentage points.

Newsweek

https://www.newsweek.com/...20-1444326

2020 ELECTION POLLS: LESS THAN 40% OF TEXANS WOULD DEFINITELY VOTE TO RE-ELECT DONALD TRUMP

But several early polls have shown Trump to be in danger of losing the state to a Democratic challenger in 2020. A Quinnipiac University poll released earlier this month showed that if the election were held today, Trump would lose to former Vice President Joe Biden by roughly 4 percentage points.

According to that survey, Trump's hold over the state was also threatened by Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, Beto O'Rourke, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Each of those Democratic candidates were within the poll's margin of error in terms of beating Trump at the ballot box in 2020.

Internal polling by the Trump campaign, first reported by the New York Times also shows the president to be in trouble in key battleground states like Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania. In a statement to CBS News, the campaign noted the polls were real but called them "incomplete and misleading" and that they only represented a "worst-case scenario."

Trump pushed back against his own internal polling in a series of tweets, alleging that news outlets had "reported Fake numbers" that do not exist. But after the survey numbers leaked to the Times, the Trump team reportedly parted ways with several of its pollsters.

I trust these polls more than the ones in June 2015...

He´ll win another term.

His fanbase adores him.

KoolEaze said:

KoolEaze said:

He´ll win another term.

His fanbase adores him.

I wish with all my heart I didn't agree with this, but I do

Ugot2shakesumthin said:

I am going to predict right now that there is no way he can win. That he has no chance in hell. I am more confident than ever on this. The reason is simple. The last time around he had NOTHING that people could judge him on as a candidate. No political record. He could talk shit all he wanted. Today? We know he’s a piece of shit. There are fervent sewer rats and elderly fools that support him, But the fact is his approval rating has never polled higher than 48%. right now it’s at 43% He has he lowest approval rating(even with an inherited positive economy) than any president in modern history. Even on a bipartisan level, he is one of the most disliked presidents in modern history. And we will all be reminded ad nauseam of all the despicable things he has said and done over the past few years. Sure, like I said there are sewer rats that like that sort of shit, but as we have seen, it’s a minority. A mostly old, uneducated loud minority that is manufactured and has the full promotion of Fox “news”, but still a minority voice. No chance in hell. [Edited 6/19/19 9:57am]

I really, really hope you're right.

Ugot2shakesumthin said:

I am going to predict right now that there is no way he can win. That he has no chance in hell. I am more confident than ever on this. The reason is simple. The last time around he had NOTHING that people could judge him on as a candidate. No political record. He could talk shit all he wanted. Today? We know he’s a piece of shit. There are fervent sewer rats and elderly fools that support him, But the fact is his approval rating has never polled higher than 48%. right now it’s at 43% He has he lowest approval rating(even with an inherited positive economy) than any president in modern history. Even on a bipartisan level, he is one of the most disliked presidents in modern history. And we will all be reminded ad nauseam of all the despicable things he has said and done over the past few years. Sure, like I said there are sewer rats that like that sort of shit, but as we have seen, it’s a minority. A mostly old, uneducated loud minority that is manufactured and has the full promotion of Fox “news”, but still a minority voice. No chance in hell. [Edited 6/19/19 9:57am]

I know people who post long lists of his accomplishments on Facebook regularly, and regardless of what you or experts say, those people truly and honestly believe in those accomplishments, so no matter what we think is true, their truth is their truth, and as long as they believe those number, he will be re-elected.

And I don´t really see a charismatic leader on the Dem´s side who appeals to independent or undecided or frustrated voters.

AOC? Sanders? They are oddities, people on the fringe, not All-American enough.

Trump on the other hand doesn´t even need to prove anything, they just love him despite (or because of?) his many flaws.

guitarslinger44 said:

KoolEaze said:

He´ll win another term.

His fanbase adores him.

That and the Dems are playing to the feel good vote rather than someone who actually has a chance.

I don´t really see a Democrat who´s popular enough to be a threat to Trump.

^^ This is just dumb. We are 17 months out y'all. Reminds me of people who like to tell you you're going to hell when no one really knows if there truly is one.

So far he is LOSING in the polls - even his own internal polls. This thread is supposed to be about polls and numbers, not fortune telling and hand wringing. Thanks a lot guys.

[Edited 6/19/19 11:54am]

Remember - these nationwide polls don't mean squat. It's the state-by-state polls that matter, because that's where the electoral votes are won.

Right now, the only states that I'm interested in polls are for the ones that cost Clinton the 2016 election - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Safe to say no polls mean squat considering what happened in 2016. That said, Dems are leading in the polls in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania right now.

There is no reason beyond drama to say Trump will win right now. Catastrophizing at it's worst.

Ugot2shakesumthin said:

the most unpopular president since we’ve kept data I’ll just say that again.

Biden isn't looking too good right now.

PennyPurple said:

Biden isn't looking too good right now.

He should not have entered the race. Neither should have Bernie Sanders. They are old white guys who don't have a chance of beating unrepentant serial adulterer Donald J. Trump.

I'm liking Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren. I'd like Beto O'Rourke if he would turn into a mean, nasty son of a bitch.

poppys said:

^^ This is just dumb. We are 17 months out y'all. Reminds me of people who like to tell you you're going to hell when no one really knows if there truly is one.

So far he is LOSING in the polls - even his own internal polls. This thread is supposed to be about polls and numbers, not fortune telling and hand wringing. Thanks a lot guys.

[Edited 6/19/19 11:54am]

I find personal attacks dumb.

I've said before, not a fan of a Biden retread, but will vote for the Dem nominee. He got pounced on yesterday by his competition, but I think his words got twisted a little bit, which is to be expected. They want to beat him.

Ditto Bernie. Like him or not, he is leading Trump in polls in MI, WI and PA right now.

Trying to nail down a nom right now may be a mistake anyway. It's really too early for poll sport, 17 months of attention fatigue could be the result. Every citizen doesn't do what we do, lol. We have a lot of muffin to go. Getting Trump out is the mantra, not party/candidate perfection.

RodeoSchro said:

PennyPurple said:

Biden isn't looking too good right now.

He should not have entered the race. Neither should have Bernie Sanders. They are old white guys who don't have a chance of beating unrepentant serial adulterer Donald J. Trump.

I'm liking Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren. I'd like Beto O'Rourke if he would turn into a mean, nasty son of a bitch.

Oh, I certainly like some of the candidates but I don´t see a majority of Americans voting for them. I don´t trust Kamala Harris a lot, and Elizabeth Warren is not charismatic enough. Beto O´Rourke seems to be a good candidate but like you , I think he´s not mean enough to be a threat to Trump. Then there´s Buttgieg who also seems to be a very competent and smart guy but I just don´t see a majority of blue collar Americans voting for an openly gay candidate from Califorinia whose name is Buttgieg, no matter how smart and competent he is....I just don´t see that happening anytime soon.

.

At this point, the Democrats are too divided.

Trump has, in the opinion of his followers, delivered.

He´s put two extremely conservative guys into the Supreme Court and satisfied most of his very conservative voters even though he himself is an adulterer. But his policies seem to please socially conservative voters. The so-called "Christian" right is more than happy.

.

He is anti-immigration and while the wall has not really been built yet, he can always blame that on the Democrats and use it during his campaign.

Then there´s the tax cuts and the strong economy. I know he is not really responsible for the strong economy but go and tell that to his supporters.

Now, if he can avoid more wars and keep the dialog with North Korea, I think his chances for a second term are quite high. He and his supporters are much more passionate these days than most Democrats. If the Democrats continue to ignore this, they´ll be in for a big surprise.

^^ You keep leaving out one important thing. Trump followers are not the majority, kool. He won by 77,000 votes in the Electoral College and lost the popular vote big time.

This thread is about polls. If I took anecdotal evidence as positive proof here in my city, Trump would be voted out tomorrow. But that is not the entire picture either. We have to look at the data as a whole.

[Edited 6/20/19 9:23am]

poppys said:

^^ You keep leaving out one important thing. Trump followers are not the majority, kool. He won by 77,000 votes in the Electoral College and lost the popular vote big time.

This thread is about polls. If I took anecdotal evidence as positive proof here in my city, Trump would be voted out tomorrow. But that is not the entire picture either. We have to look at the data as a whole.

[Edited 6/20/19 9:23am]

Exactly. Turd supporters are loud, but they are by no means a majority opinion.

The Turd camp has one objective right now, it’s getting people out to vote. They know they can’t sway people, but they want to make sure those that are sympathetic to him show up and vote.

Tjsts what Democrats need to do as well. We saw the usual morons here last election telling people not to vote

people! Go out and vote! Regardless of what anyone says or who you like! Get out there and cast YOUR VOTE!

Ugot2shakesumthin said:

poppys said:

^^ You keep leaving out one important thing. Trump followers are not the majority, kool. He won by 77,000 votes in the Electoral College and lost the popular vote big time.

This thread is about polls. If I took anecdotal evidence as positive proof here in my city, Trump would be voted out tomorrow. But that is not the entire picture either. We have to look at the data as a whole.

Exactly. Turd supporters are loud, but they are by no means a majority opinion.

The Turd camp has one objective right now, it’s getting people out to vote. They know they can’t sway people, but they want to make sure those that are sympathetic to him show up and vote.

Thats what Democrats need to do as well. We saw the usual morons here last election telling people not to vote

people! Go out and vote! Regardless of what anyone says or who you like! Get out there and cast YOUR VOTE!

Really hoping the Dems who sat out the last election because they were lukewarm on the candidate, will realize that voting can also be about keeping out the (nightmare) candidate we got. Ditto with 3rd party voters this time around. Think about numbers and the lesser of 2 evils - please.

maplenpg said:

KoolEaze said:

He´ll win another term.

His fanbase adores him.

I wish with all my heart I didn't agree with this, but I do

His fan base is not the majority of the country. Dems need ot take back about 3 states he won naarrowly - that's all

How did we ever get such a miserable and grotesque excuse for a man as president?

Oh that’s right, the red hat wearing racist freaks that represent miserable grotesque America.

Ugot2shakesumthin said:

How did we ever get such a miserable and grotesque excuse for a man as president?

Oh that’s right, the red hat wearing racist freaks that represent miserable grotesque America.

Don't ever forget - unrepentant serial adulterer Donald J. Trump won the Electoral College because about 77,000 fat, lazy, disgusting, putrid, booger-eating, yellow-toenail-having, smelly-armpit, drooling slobs in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania who voted in 2012 were too lazy to vote in 2016.

RodeoSchro said:

Ugot2shakesumthin said:

How did we ever get such a miserable and grotesque excuse for a man as president?

Oh that’s right, the red hat wearing racist freaks that represent miserable grotesque America.

Don't ever forget - unrepentant serial adulterer Donald J. Trump won the Electoral College because about 77,000 fat, lazy, disgusting, putrid, booger-eating, yellow-toenail-having, smelly-armpit, drooling slobs in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania who voted in 2012 were too lazy to vote in 2016.

The past is the past - and you're right, the decision NOT to vote in 201 has resulted in a disasterous adminsitration.

However, we NEED those votes! We must encourage these people (not insult them) to get out and VOTE in 2020!!! Voting Agent Orange out of office is essential.

I'm all in on Warren but I'll vote for whatever Democrat they trot out.

OnlyNDaUsa said:

I trust these polls more than the ones in June 2015...

This is a common refrain, but the polling for the last election was largely accurate and well within the margain of error. 538 had Clinton at a 71% chance of victory and their popular vote totals were fairly accurate as well.

46.1% to 48.2 ACTUAL (2.1% margain)

44.9% to 48.5& projected (3.6% margain)

So a difference/error of 1.5%

...

https://fivethirtyeight.c...all-right/

...we’ve updated FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings for the first time since the 2016 presidential primaries. Based on how the media portrayed the polls after President Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton later that year, you might expect pollsters to get a pretty disastrous report card.

But here’s a stubborn and surprising fact — and one to keep in mind as midterm polls really start rolling in: Over the past two years — meaning in the 2016 general election and then in the various gubernatorial elections and special elections that have taken place in 2017 and 2018 — the accuracy of polls has been pretty much average by historical standards.

You read that right. Polls of the November 2016 presidential election were about as accurate as polls of presidential elections have been on average since 1972.

The media narrative that polling accuracy has taken a nosedive is mostly bullshit, in other words. Polls were never as good as the media assumed they were before 2016 — and they aren’t nearly as bad as the media seems to assume they are now. In reality, not that much has changed.

That’s not to say there aren’t reasons for concern. National polls were pretty good in the 2016 presidential election, but state-level polling was fairly poor (although still within the “normal” range of accuracy). Polls of the 2016 presidential primaries were sometimes way off the mark. And in many recent elections, the polls were statistically biased in one direction or another — there was a statistical bias toward Democrats in 2016, for instance.

Ugot2shakesumthin said: