^ Happy Polar Bears

In 2007 Scientists Professor Wieslaw Maslowski and his group group, which includes co-workers at Nasa and the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences (PAS) prediced the Arcit sea to be ice free in 2013, which even migh be too conservative>

Of course Al Gore cited Professor Maslowski's analysis in his acceptance speech at the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony in Oslo.


Source: BBC


Looking at it now, this fear mongering is false as it can be.
Arctic sea ice extend is within the normal, natural variation (within 2 sigma of the 1980-2010 average)

But hey, that doesn't generate alarming headlines, so you won't read about it





.
Edit: Link added

[Edited 9/10/18 23:54pm]

this and this

is it slowing down for a few years now? yes, but the trend is still there

all below 1972-2017average





anyway, you really should make up your mind now. one day you say there IS global warming, but it is not man made
but the next day (in threads like this) you obviously suggest that there isn't any warming process anyway....?
NOW WHAT IS IT?

you just drop random confused flip flop propganda drivel that fits your agenda. that's why I refuse any further debate for now

[Edited 9/11/18 0:13am]

Dancelot said:

this and this

is it slowing down for a few years now? yes, but the trend is still there

all below 1972-2017average

anyway, you really should make up your mind now. one day you say there IS global warming, but it is not man made
but the next day (in threads like this) you obviously suggest that there isn't any warming process anyway....?
NOW WHAT IS IT?

you just drop random confused flip flop propganda drivel that fits your agenda. that's why I refuse any further debate for now

[Edited 9/11/18 0:13am]

Completely irrelevant reply.

Alarmists: SCIENTISTS in 2007 say by 2013 the artic ice will be 0

"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007,"

"So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."

We use a high-resolution regional model for the Arctic Ocean and sea ice forced with realistic atmospheric data. This way, we get much more realistic forcing, from above by the atmosphere and from the bottom by the ocean."


FACT: it hasn't happened. Variation of the arctic sea ice extend falls perfectly within the natural variation. (avg. + or - 3 sigma, or better + or - 2 sigma)

The graph you provided is a nice example of cherry picking.
Stick to the graph used by everyone else, from the NSIDC.

so have you made up your mind yet?

(1) there is global warming

(2) there is NO global warming

Dancelot said:

so have you made up your mind yet?

(1) there is global warming

(2) there is NO global warming

There is a constant fluctuation of the earth's temperature.
Depending on which time scale, you can say there is global warming, global cooling or no trend at all.

If you look at the time scale in which we intrumentalized measurement of surface temperatures, there is a warming trend. (where you can ask yourself how reliable the data is, but that is a different story)

But again. That was not the point of my OP.

Point is: As with temperature prediction by models, also arctic sea ice extend model predictions have been falsified by recorded data.

TweetyV6 said:

If you look at the time scale in which we intrumentalized measurement of surface temperatures, there is a warming trend. (where you can ask yourself how reliable the data is, but that is a different story)

alrigthy, so there is a warming trend.

then it makes perfect sense if the Arctic ice volume is shrinking. and I'm not takling predictions and models now, just observation of past years

500 yrs back in time: Warming

1,200 yrs back in time: Warming? Cooling?

5,000 yrs back in time: Cooling

11,000 yrs back in time: Cooling(?)

15,000 yrs back in time: Warming!!




50,000 yrs back intime: Warming

450,000 yrs back in time: uuuhm...... ??

Dancelot said:

TweetyV6 said:

If you look at the time scale in which we intrumentalized measurement of surface temperatures, there is a warming trend. (where you can ask yourself how reliable the data is, but that is a different story)

alrigthy, so there is a warming trend.

then it makes perfect sense if the Arctic ice volume is shrinking. and I'm not takling predictions and models now, just observation of past years

Wooooooowww... hold your horses

Sea Ice Extent is NOT equal to Volume. BIG mistake!

Arctic Ice MASS (=volume) is gaining!!

TweetyV6 said:

Dancelot said:

alrigthy, so there is a warming trend.

then it makes perfect sense if the Arctic ice volume is shrinking. and I'm not takling predictions and models now, just observation of past years

Wooooooowww... hold your horses

Sea Ice Extent is NOT equal to Volume. BIG mistake!

Arctic Ice MASS (=volume) is gaining!!

who said it's equal? but it's a correlation. thickness and extent = volume
so if you suggest that when extent is smaller, but at the same time volume is gaining, that would mean that the ice cap must be thicker... bullshit

[Edited 9/11/18 2:53am]

doesn't look like volume is gaining...

Dancelot said:

doesn't look like volume is gaining...

Have a better look. All curves lie within the 2 sigma bandwith, which is perfectly within the natural variation between 1979 and 2017. No no strange things.

The Greenland Ice Sheet has had an unprecedented large amount (mass) of ice. [see blue line in lower graph]

But Dance, my post was about false predictions that make headlines and if reality bites those predictions in the ass, the only thing you hear is chirping crickets.

The actual article is a bit more confused, includes both of the following quotes:

You can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative.

and

It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040.

I dunno, take it up with the BBC I guess.


Speaking generally we know how this works, for years climate change wasn't happening, now that we're in the middle of it deniers finally admit that it is happening but their new line is that humans have nothing to do with it, what's next? There's no point in arguing with these people, they just see conspiracies everywhere. Funnily enough they're usually the ones living in areas least affected by climate change. The end point is usually when they become honest and say "it's every man for himself and I won't help poor people."

nothing is "biting predictions"

and you're cherrypicking your predictions.


other predicitons form the link YOU posted...

"It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040"

"My thinking on this is that 2030 is not an unreasonable date to be thinking of"

so your thread topic is misleading, given the link you provided

so we will continue the debate in 12 years. then we will see about biting predictions

[Edited 9/11/18 8:18am]

Dancelot said:

nothing is "biting predictions"

and you're cherrypicking your predictions.


other predicitons form the link YOU posted...

"It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040"

"My thinking on this is that 2030 is not an unreasonable date to be thinking of"

so your thread topic is misleading, given the link you provided

so we will continue the debate in 12 years. then we will see about biting predictions

Reading is a difficult skill, I see:

My topic title is the BBC headline. So if there's anybody misleading, it's the BBC

BBC HEADLINE: Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013' <- that's what the vast majority of the readers will remember

Professor Maslowski and his team said:

"Our projection of 2013 for the removal of ice in summer is not accounting for the last two minima, in 2005 and 2007," the researcher from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, explained to the BBC. "So given that fact, you can argue that may be our projection of 2013 is already too conservative."

Professor Peter Wadhams from Cambridge University, UK said:

"In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly. It might not be as early as 2013 but it will be soon, much earlier than 2040."

National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) research scientist Dr Mark Serreze said:

"I think Wieslaw is probably a little aggressive in his projections, ..... but Wieslaw is a smart guy and it would not surprise me if his projections came out."

So Prof. Maslowski states 2013 or earlier, without any room for interpretation, where Prof. Wadhams uses 'might' twice. (in other words, he doesn't have a fucking clue and does not want to commit to a hard 'date') similar to Dr. Serreze, who also seems to have no clue c.q. does not want to make a firm prediction.

.

[Edited 9/11/18 22:39pm]

TweetyV6 said:

BBC HEADLINE: Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013' <- that's what the vast majority of the readers will remember

speak for yourself buddy. cause others prefer to get a bit deeper and actually READ articles.
but I can see your point now, since even your stance is that "Reading is a difficult skill"

[Edited 9/11/18 23:35pm]

Dancelot said:

TweetyV6 said:

BBC HEADLINE: Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013' <- that's what the vast majority of the readers will remember

speak for yourself buddy. cause others prefer to get a bit deeper and actually READ articles.
but I can see your point now, since even your stance is that "Reading is a difficult skill"

[Edited 9/11/18 23:35pm]

Well. You accused me of cherry picking, where I only repeat the BBC headline. So much for reading skills.

in the meantime, during our little insignificant usless brabbles, reality and facts are catching up



https://www.handelsblatt....1tCCmm-ap4

[Edited 9/21/18 1:22am]